Wednesday, October 29, 2008
Getting Back Into Commodities
By far, my best trade this year was short gold/long US dollar. I think this trade may have run its course as the fed lowers rates to stimulate the economy. The dollar should go down on this, and as result, commodities will go up. I think the coast is clear to dip my toe back into commodities. It should be noted that commodities and energy are late cycle plays, and are usually the last to go up. Furthermore, deflation is rampant and commodities are usually good inflation hedges. But as the fed lowers rates, the only choice is to inflate our way out of this crisis. These are my only qualms getting back into this sector.
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